What can the numbers teach us about Leicester's Premier League title chances?


Leicester moved seven points clear at the top of the Barclays Premier League with Sunday’s 1-0 win over Southampton.

Claudio Ranieri’s side need four wins from their final six games to guarantee a stunning title success.

Here’s a look at some of the numbers around Leicester’s fabulous season to date and their prospects of sealing the deal.

Favourites for a reason

Graphic showing how teams top of the Premier League after 32 games have performed

The odds are in Leicester’s favour as in 16 of the 20 seasons since the Premier League was reduced to 20 clubs, the team leading at this stage went on to win.

But in three of the last six seasons, the team leading after 32 games blew it. Manchester United in 2010 and 2012 and Liverpool in 2014 all failed to maintain their lead.

United lost an eight-point advantage to Manchester City four years ago to finish second on goal difference – which should serve as a warning to the Foxes that it is not over yet.

One-nil to the Foxes

Graphic showing Leicester's percentage of 1-0 wins

Ranieri’s side are on course to win the title with a historically high percentage of wins by a single goal.

They have won their last four games 1-0, including against Southampton on Sunday, and 70% of their Premier League victories this season (14 out of 20) by a single-goal margin, higher than any other past title winner.

The previous highest percentage of single-goal victories across a Premier League title-winning campaign was set by Manchester United in 2012-13 – Sir Alex Ferguson’s final season in charge – when 16 of their 28 league wins were secured by a single-goal margin. The average of single-goal victories for a title winner is 42%.

Low total

Graphic showing the progression of Leicester's points total

Only one other side has led the division with so few points (69) at this stage in the last 13 seasons.

Manchester United also had 69 points in 2010-11 and had a similar advantage to Leicester as they sat six points clear of Arsenal.

United went on to win the title with 80 points, nine ahead of runners-up Chelsea. Ranieri set Leicester a final target of 79 points at the halfway stage this season.


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